WHEAT - RECOVERY IN DOUBT
Wheat futures at Chicago (CBOT) had a slight recovery session on Thursday, although the prospect of abundant global supply and a strengthening USD continued to curb the upward momentum. Market attention was focused on the report of U.S. wheat export sales reaching 712,000 tons - far exceeding expectations and bringing a glimmer of hope amid the gloomy outlook.
However, the reality is still quite complicated. The soft red winter wheat price for September delivery (WU25) modestly increased by 1 cent, closing at 5.41-1/2 USD/per bushel, while hard red wheat (KWU25) rose 5 cents to 5.28-1/2 USD/per bushelSpecifically, spring wheat (MWEU25) slipped slightly, down 2-1/2 cents, closing at 5.88-1/2 USD/per bushel after hitting the new bottom in the session.
The United States is currently offering wheat at a lower price than both Europe and Russia - countries that are entering their peak harvesting season with a large yield flooding into the international market.
The crop survey trip in North Dakota – the largest hard red spring wheat producing state in the U.S. – shows that this year's yield could average. 49.0 bushels/acre, significantly lower than last year's record (54.5 bushels) and the USDA's forecast is 59 bags. However, this number still exceeds the average of the last 5 years (44.6 bushels) – reflects a “neutral” season rather than a bad one.
Technical Perspective
On the daily chart, September wheat (ZWAU25) ended the session on July 24 at 541’6, after fluctuating around the range of 535’0 – 546’0. The short candle with long wicks indicates a strong struggle between the buyers and sellers around the support level. 536–539Despite the rebound, the short-term downward trend is still prevailing. Investors are advised. priority for short selling orders, be cautious when the market does not show clear signs of reversal.
NGO - HOPES FOR TRADE BLOW A NEW WIND
The corn market closed on Thursday with slight gains, as buying momentum offset short selling amid expectations of export support moves from former President Donald Trump. Trading sentiment improved after the Japanese Prime Minister committed to advancing a US-Japan trade agreement in the near future.
The nearest delivery corn contract (Cv1) has increased. 3 and 1/4 cents, achieve 4.20-3/4 USD/per bushel – signs indicate that the market is still seeking support after the recent correction.
SOYBEANS – THE MARKET AWAITS THE 'PROMISE' TO TURN INTO ACTION
Soybeans are recovering slightly after the decline, supported by technical trading activities and fragile hope for a new trade deal from the Trump administration. However, the export picture is not very bright: U.S. soybean sales are weaker than expected, while weather in the Midwest continues to pressure the crop.
November soybean contracts (SX25) increased. 1-1/2 cent, up 10.24-1/4 USD/per bushel. However, the soybean product subgroup moved in the opposite direction: August soybean meal (SMQ25) and December soybean meal (SMZ25) both fell sharply, closing at respectively. 279,70 and 283.10 USD/short tonIn contrast, soybean oil for August (BOQ25) and December (BOZ25) both increased slightly, reflecting activity. price differential transaction in the group of soybean products.
The market is also under pressure from the information that China has signed a purchase agreement. soy flour Large-scale output from Argentina is putting pressure on U.S. domestic prices in the short term. At the same time, Ukraine's consideration of a 10% export tax on soybeans and canola has raised concerns about international competition in the oilseed supply chain.
