Disrupted supply returns to affect the energy and metals market.
The energy and metals markets are struggling to identify a clear trend due to conflicting supply factors. Meanwhile, gold prices are under pressure as the U.S. labor market remains stable and strong.
US stocks set a new record thanks to positive business results.
At the close of trading on July 24, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reached new highs, thanks to better-than-expected earnings from Alphabet. Specifically, the S&P 500 rose slightly by 0.07% to 6,363.35 points, while the Nasdaq increased by 0.18% to 21,057.96 points. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones index fell by 0.7% due to IBM's stock plummeting more than 7% after disappointing revenue reports.
Although the market started positively thanks to Alphabet, the upward momentum was limited by Tesla's poor results. Investors are also watching a rare move: President Trump plans to visit the Fed, the first time in nearly 20 years. Additionally, expectations for a U.S.-EU trade deal also provide support for the market.
Oil prices rose thanks to progress in US-EU negotiations.
WTI oil prices continue to rise as the US and EU move closer to an agreement to impose a 15% tariff on goods – instead of the 30% in the negative scenario. The oil price surpassing the 50-day average has triggered technical buying power. However, the market remains cautious as the US allows Chevron to continue oil drilling in Venezuela – a supply that was previously halted due to Trump's ban, which is now primarily exported to China.
Gold prices decline ahead of optimistic trade signals.
Gold fell due to positive expectations about U.S. trade negotiations with the EU and Japan, reducing the demand for safe havens. Spot gold prices decreased by 0.6% to $3,367.72/oz, while futures fell by 0.7%. Although strong gains in the stock market put pressure on gold, President Trump's unexpected visit to the Fed raised concerns about the central bank's independence, thereby supporting gold prices in the medium and long term. The Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in July, but the market expects a cut in September.
Copper prices are adjusting as the supply outlook remains uncertain.
Copper prices fell as recent gains lost momentum. In Panama, First Quantum is hoping to resume operations at the closed mine - which used to account for 1% of global output. Meanwhile, in Chile, the Quebrada Blanca mine is facing issues with its waste storage, which could lead to a significant drop in production this year despite expansion efforts.
Rubber prices fell again after a series of increases, due to high inventories.
Rubber prices at major exchanges such as Japan, China, and Thailand fell on July 25. The reason is the stable supply and high inventory, which overshadowed the positive sentiment from the automotive industry. In Japan, prices dropped by 0.3%, in China by 0.6%, and in Thailand by 0.4%. Although domestic tire demand has improved, manufacturers have not yet increased imports due to the still high inventory.
Coffee prices continue to rise strongly
Both types of coffee, Robusta (London) and Arabica (New York), have increased in price. Robusta fluctuates between 3,136 - 3,374 USD/ton, while Arabica has risen to 273.05 - 307.20 cents/lb. The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee fluctuates slightly between delivery periods, but still maintains an overall upward trend.
The US dollar remains stable amidst global monetary policy.
The USD remains stable as the ECB keeps interest rates unchanged, while the market predicts that Japan may raise interest rates after trade agreements. The eurozone economy shows signs of slight recovery, particularly in Germany, while France is still facing difficulties. Investors are waiting for new signals from the Fed and upcoming U.S. economic data.
President Trump visits the Fed amidst rising tensions.
Mr. Trump visited the Fed headquarters to inspect a $2.5 billion renovation project, a rare action from a U.S. president. The visit came just a few days before the monetary policy meeting, raising controversies about interference with the central bank. Analysts expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%.
President Putin affirmed that the modernization of the Russian navy is a top priority.
At the commissioning ceremony of the nuclear submarine 'Prince Pozharsky', Mr. Putin announced that Russia will intensify its naval modernization to protect national interests. Currently, shipyards are constructing more than 70 ships, with Severodvinsk set to complete 6 new nuclear submarines before 2030.
President Xi warns the EU to 'choose the right path' in trade cooperation.
At the China-EU Summit, President Xi Jinping urged the EU to resolve disputes reasonably and avoid "disrupting the supply chain." Ursula von der Leyen acknowledged that the relationship between the two sides is at a turning point and called on China to propose solutions to balance the trade deficit, which currently stands at 360 billion USD. Although the duration of the conference was shortened, both sides still reached a joint statement on climate cooperation.
Source: Vietfutures aggregated
