Market Sentiment Under the Trade Cloud: As Wall Street Peaks, Gold and Oil Retreat
July 28, 2025 marked a dramatic week in global financial markets, as positive signals from Wall Street were overshadowed by concerns about trade policy, geopolitics and interest rates. In that context, investors were both elated by a series of new records and cautiously observed unpredictable variables from the White House and the Federal Reserve (Fed).
1. Wall Street “hits the top”, but not everyone is celebrating
The S&P 500 continued its run to new highs with a fifth straight gain, closing at 6,388.64 points – its 14th record of the year. The Nasdaq was no slouch, notching its 15th record high. The rally was fueled by better-than-expected earnings from tech giants Alphabet and Verizon and hopes for new trade deals with Japan, Indonesia and the EU.
However, the picture is not entirely rosy. A stronger dollar – a sign of risk aversion – reflects growing concerns about the sustainability of the rally, especially as the Fed faces unprecedented political pressure from President Trump to cut interest rates more aggressively.
2. Gold and oil: Two “fear indicators” fall simultaneously
World gold prices fell more than 1%, falling to $3,336/oz, amid the USD’s increase and expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged. As investor sentiment shifted to risky assets, gold – which is a safe haven – quickly lost its appeal.
At the same time, Brent and WTI oil prices fell to their lowest levels in three weeks, at $68.44/barrel and $65.16/barrel, respectively. Concerns about the weakening US-China economy, coupled with signs of increased supply from Venezuela and Iran, have put great pressure on the energy market.
3. Commodity markets: Copper, rubber, coffee split trends
- Copper prices continue to be under pressure from the risk of US tax policies. The 50% tariff that is set to take effect in August is adding to the uncertainty, while investors are still “holding their breath” waiting for a detailed list of affected products.
- In contrast, the rubber market has shown clear positive signs. Both the SGX and Tocom exchanges have recorded a recovery, thanks to expectations of low supply and high demand in 2025. ANRPC forecasts a global deficit of up to 673,000 tonnes.
- Coffee prices have remained stable, with no significant fluctuations despite the volatile general market.
4. Trump – Fed: An uncompromising confrontation
Mr. Trump’s surprise visit to the Fed headquarters on July 24 has “fueled” tensions. The president publicly criticized the cost of renovating the headquarters and urged Chairman Powell to cut interest rates further. Although Powell insists he will not resign, the political pressure is raising concerns about the independence of the Fed – a cornerstone of US monetary policy stability.
5. US – EU: Deal or Unequal Trade-Off?
Although the US-EU trade deal is expected to ease transatlantic tensions, it has been met with harsh criticism from Europe. Bernd Lange, Chairman of the EU’s International Trade Committee, called it a “biased” deal that could cause long-term damage to industry and jobs in the continent.
6. Cryptocurrencies boom on Wall Street – a new wave of speculation?
As traditional stocks enter a technical correction, a new “altcoin fever” emerges, led by listed companies and SPACs investing in tokens such as $TRUMP, HYPE, Toncoin… The Michael Saylor-style portfolio diversification strategy is spreading, but also raising concerns: is this a new “speculative bubble”?
Overview
Financial markets are at a crossroads between euphoria and uncertainty. While Wall Street is hitting new highs, gold, oil and copper prices reflect underlying concerns about policy and macroeconomics. The Fed is at a crossroads between holding firm or giving in to political pressure. Investors have no choice but to keep their heads cool and their eyes open, lest they be swept away by the ever-more-confused signals.
Source: Vietfutures aggregated
