Positive economic data supports the market, but geopolitical and policy risks still exist.
Positive economic data has supported an optimistic sentiment in the industrial metals market. However, oil prices weakened due to concerns about rising supply, while U.S. stocks are under pressure from reports that the Trump administration plans to impose a minimum tax of 15% on the European Union (EU).
At the end of the trading session on July 18, the Dow Jones index fell by 142.30 points (–0.32%) to 44,342.19 points. The S&P 500 remained nearly flat, decreasing by 0.01% to 6,296.79 points, despite reaching a historical peak at one point during the session. The Nasdaq Composite slightly rose by 0.05% to 20,895.66 points.
President Trump is said to have demanded a minimum tax rate of 15-20% in negotiations with the EU, while threatening to impose a 30% tax from August 1 if no agreement is reached. Investors are closely monitoring the progress of the negotiations and U.S. economic data, as well as the corporate earnings reporting season.
According to a survey by the University of Michigan, the US consumer confidence index improved in July 2025. However, some large companies such as Netflix, 3M, and American Express reported business results that fell short of expectations. Nevertheless, the second quarter earnings season was generally positive, with 83% of S&P 500 companies reporting earnings that exceeded expectations – including PepsiCo, JPMorgan, United Airlines, and Goldman Sachs. Overall, for the week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq increased, while Dow Jones declined slightly.
Oil prices fluctuate slightly ahead of mixed signals from the economy and geopolitics.
Oil prices were steady in the session on July 18 as mixed economic data from the U.S. eased concerns about the impact of new EU sanctions on Russia. At the end of the session, Brent crude fell 0.3% to $69.32 per barrel; WTI dropped 0.2% to $67.38 per barrel. For the week, both contracts decreased by 1%.
In the U.S., housing construction in June 2025 fell sharply due to high mortgage rates and an unstable sentiment, raising concerns about real estate investment in the second quarter. However, improved consumer confidence and expectations of cooling inflation in July have increased the likelihood that the Fed could cut interest rates – a factor that supports growth and energy demand.
In Europe, the EU has just approved its 18th sanctions package targeting the Russian energy sector, including a price cap on oil that is 15% lower than the market price. However, the market reaction has been quite weak due to skepticism about the enforcement capabilities. The EU also declared an end to imports of refined products from Russian oil, except for sources from allied countries – contributing to support for diesel and gasoline prices in the U.S. and Europe.
Gold recovers slightly thanks to a weaker USD and global instability.
Gold prices rose again on July 18 as the US dollar weakened, coupled with geopolitical developments and economic instability increasing the demand for safe havens. Spot gold contracts increased by 0.4% to $3,353.25 per ounce, while futures contracts rose by 0.4% to $3,359.70 per ounce. The US dollar fell by 0.5%, making gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies.
Expert Suki Cooper (Standard Chartered) believes that gold is supported by concerns over U.S. public debt and global trade tensions. Meanwhile, President Trump continues to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates, yet there has been no move to replace Chairman Powell.
The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice before the end of the year (a total of 0.5%), and this, combined with economic uncertainty, will continue to support gold prices – the preferred asset when interest rates are low and risks rise.
Copper surged strongly due to expectations of demand, although supply risks in the U.S. still remain.
Copper prices surged this week due to optimism about demand from the U.S. and China. China's GDP grew by 5.2% in the second quarter, continuing the unexpected rise from the first quarter. The manufacturing sector increased by 4.8% thanks to a recovery in exports, while retail sales growth for the first six months reached 5.0%.
However, China's growth is forecasted to slow down in the second half of the year, but it will still meet the annual target of 5.1%. BHP stated that domestic demand in China remains strong despite the real estate instability.
In the U.S., indicators such as unemployment claims and retail sales have exceeded expectations, easing concerns from tax policies. However, the U.S. imposing a 50% tariff on imported copper may not help resolve the refining capacity shortage. This leads to a slowdown in imports, forcing consumers to deplete inventories – putting downward pressure on COMEX copper prices in the short term. LME copper prices may also temporarily adjust before recovering as import demand returns.
Rubber prices surged, coffee remained stable in the past week.
Rubber prices in key markets rose sharply last week. In Japan, the August futures price on the OSE increased by 2% to 321 yen/kg. On the Shanghai market, rubber prices rose by 3% to 14,795 yuan/ton. Thailand also recorded a 3% increase, reaching 74.08 baht/kg.
On the contrary, the coffee market remains stable. Robusta prices in London fluctuate between 3,193 and 3,407 USD/ton, while Arabica in New York varies slightly around 280–310 cents/lb. Brazilian Arabica coffee also stays flat in the range of 358–389 USD/ton.
The money market is stable, and investors are closely monitoring trade developments and digital currency policies.
The US Dollar index hovers around 98.4 as investors monitor tariff developments. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in July after signs of weakening in the labor market and cooling inflation pressures. The USD has slightly declined against the Japanese Yen due to unfavorable election results for the ruling coalition in Tokyo.
At the same time, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the Genius Act regulating stablecoins - requiring collateral backed by liquid assets and transparency of reserves. In addition, two other laws were passed, clarifying the roles between the SEC and the CFTC in overseeing digital assets, and banning the issuance of central bank digital currencies.
China faces consumer challenges, Russia keeps Ukraine negotiation open.
China maintains its growth momentum, but domestic consumption remains a bottleneck. Although GDP in the second quarter grew by 5.2%, retail sales in June slowed down, prompting Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao to warn that the economy is facing a "very serious and complicated" situation. Beijing has affirmed that it will increase policy support, especially for high technology, while also calling on the U.S. to lift trade restrictions.
On the Russian side, President Putin declared a willingness to negotiate peace with Ukraine if strategic goals are still ensured. Ukraine also proposed to resume negotiations next week. Additionally, Moscow left open the possibility of organizing a direct meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump to discuss major agreements. Previously, Trump confirmed that he would provide additional aid to Ukraine and set a 50-day deadline for Russia before imposing further sanctions.
Source: Vietfutures aggregated
